NHL expert picks, odds for Lightning vs. Panthers, Rangers vs. Canes, Oilers vs. Flames

Sunday is a great chance to watch Oilers vs. Flames if you haven’t watched any of the first two games in the Battle of Alberta with an 8 p.m. Eastern start time. The two teams combined to score 15 goals in Game 1 and scored eight goals in Game 2 on Friday night. Connor McDavid is doing Connor McDavid things, and the Oilers seem to have the Flames frustrated and not playing their game. It’ll be a crazy atmosphere in Edmonton for this one.

That’s the finale in what should be a great tripleheader of hockey on Sunday. First up, the Florida Panthers face a must-win game in Tampa Bay against the Lightning. Florida seemed to have all momentum in Game 2 on Thursday night before Tampa Bay stole the win with a last-second goal by Ross Colton off a great assist by Nikita Kucherov.

The New York Rangers are also face a must-win at Madison Square Garden on Sunday afternoon against Carolina. The Blue Shirts trail 2-0 in the series, and the Hurricanes seem to have figured out New York. At least Carolina’s defense has. New York has one goal so far in the series. Maybe that’ll change on Sunday when the Rangers have the last change and should be able to get some favorable matchups.

Sunday’s Stanley Cup Playoffs schedule:

Game 3: Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning — 1:30 p.m. ET — TNT, SN
Game 3: Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers— 3:30 p.m. ET — ESPN, SN360, SN (JIP)
Game 3: Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers — 8 p.m. ET — ESPN, CBC, SN
Every day during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, The Athletic’s writers will make their picks, straight up. We put our picks, the TV schedule and all series coverage, plus the latest odds, all in one place for fans to easily digest and follow. Our in-depth NHL coverage is linked below the picks. For live NHL odds from BetMGM, click here.

Panthers at Lightning
Panthers
-115
O 6.5 (+100)
Lightning
-105
U 6.5 (-120)
Game 2: Lightning 2, Panthers 1 | Tampa Bay leads 2-0

Who was the guy? Honestly, the Tampa Bay athletic-training and medical staffs deserve this win as much as anybody in uniform. Corey Perry was carved open by a puck to the face in warmups. Steven Stamkos left for the dressing room twice after blocked shots, one off his ankle and one off his right hand. Brandon Hagel was practically carried into the dressing room. None of them missed a shift. Throw in quick returns from Erik Cernak and Mikhail Sergachev after taking pucks to the face moments apart late in the first period, and the Lightning tunnel looked more like the Lincoln Tunnel on Thursday night. But if we have to pick a player here, Andrei Vasilevskiy gets the nod. The Tampa Bay goalie stopped 26 of 27 shots, and didn’t let one uncharacteristic hiccup — Eetu Luostarinen’s second-period slapper trickling through — knock him off his game. Another quietly great effort from a guy whose greatness we’ve all started to take for granted.

What was the key? Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but it’s the Panthers’ especially awful special teams. An 0-for-4 night on the power play now leaves them an unfathomable 0-for-25 with the man-advantage in the postseason. A switch to a five-forward unit generated more sustained zone time and a couple more chances, so if you’re a Florida fan grasping for hope that the dam is about to break, grasp away. But 0-for-25 is 0-for-25. Throw in another power-play goal by Tampa Bay on its first opportunity of the night (Perry with a high tip of a Stamkos feed), and it’s not hard to figure out why the Presidents’ Trophy winners are down 0-2 after two home games.

Panthers worry meter: 🤯 🤯 🤯 🤯 🤯 Down 2-0 to the two-time champs with the next two on the road? Yeah, it’s not ideal.

Lightning worry meter: 🤠 Doesn’t really look like a team running on fumes and going through the motions after two Cup runs, does it?

Game 2: Hurricanes 2, Rangers 0 | Carolina leads 2-0

Recap by Sean Gentille

Key stat: The Hurricanes were called for only one penalty, even while trailing for most of the game. Carolina was called for 331 penalties in the regular season and another 36 heading into Game 1. Though the Hurricanes have an elite power-play kill unit that can support their occasionally undisciplined play, the Rangers have a dangerous power play that can challenge Carolina. That’s why staying out of the box is so important in this series. Carolina was called for one penalty in the first, which the Rangers negated midway through with their own minor. After that, it was five-on-five play only throughout.

What was the key? Some combination of the Hurricanes’ penalty kill — four spotless outings, plus Smith’s goal — and another great game by Antti Raanta. He had 21 saves for his first career postseason shutout and has allowed a grand total of one goal through two games. In eight playoff games, he’s pulling a .939 save percentage and more than seven goals saved above expected, which should make the net squarely his when/if Freddie Andersen is safe to dress. He’s been that good.

Key stat: 24:09. That’s how much five-on-five time we saw in the first two periods. And folks, it did not help the even-strength flow whatsoever. Fun as power plays can be, they bring unintended consequences. Things opened up a tick in the third, but … it was the second-most entertaining game of the night. We can leave it at that.

Hurricanes worry meter: 🤠 … No problems to report. They might have gotten away with one in Game 1, but this felt like the tide turning in the right direction. If you’re up 2-0 in a series, honestly, the way you got there isn’t particularly important.

Rangers worry meter: 🤯🤯🤯🤯 … Raanta is a problem, as is the play of the Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Frank Vatrano line. That group had zero high-danger chances in Game 2. Blame the herky-jerky nature of the game for some of that, but either way, they need more.

Game 2: Oilers 5, Flames 3 | Series tied 1-1

Recap by Shayna Goldman

Who was the guy? Let’s talk about Connor McDavid. The first two periods were another prime example of the captain trying to will his team forward. He teed up Duncan Keith’s goal to get Edmonton on the board in the first, getting on the scoresheet. Then, in the second, he set up a Leon Draisaitl scoring play that was called back and instantly responded with a goal of his own (we’ll get there). Those two points bring him up to six in this series and 20 points in nine playoff games.

At five-on-five in Game 2, shot attempts were 14-9 with McDavid on the ice, and Edmonton generated 72 percent of the expected goals share. He generated nine shot attempts in all situations (second only to Zach Hyman’s 10), threw four hits and had a timely block late in the game.

What was the key? The Oilers came to play in the third period after two frames of the Edmonton McDavids doing their best to even the series. The away team fell below 35 percent of the expected goals share in the first at five-on-five, then made incremental improvements the next period at 42 percent. The third period was their best, by far. Edmonton actually still was outshot by Calgary, but the quality of its chances slanted the expected goal battle its way, with 59.5 percent according to Natural Stat Trick.

If we widen the view to all situations, we can see just how dominant the Oilers were. They gained the edge in expected goals over the Flames midway through the third, according to MoneyPuck. But by the third period, they didn’t just separate themselves but ran away with it. The final count was 9.13 expected goals for Edmonton to 3.51 for Calgary.

Oilers worry meter: 🙃🙃 … Look, Edmonton still allowed two very early goals. There’s always a level of worry with the goaltending situation.

Flames worry meter: 🙃🙃 … A tied series isn’t reason to panic, but the Flames are facing a better offensive team, and Jacob Markstrom has allowed more goals than expected the past two games.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Bionica Shoes | Tory Burch Canada | Born Shoes Canada | OOfos Shoes | Kate Spade Canada | Bates Boots | Double-H Boots | Wolverine Canada | Belleville Boots | Tony Lama Boots | LOWA Boots | Vivobarefoot Shoes | Roper Boots | Maguire Shoes | Xero Shoes Canada | Adams Shoes | Vionic Shoes | Royer Boots | Lane Boots | Samsonite Canada | Nocona Boots | Brahma Boots | On Cloud Schuhe | Nordace Backpack | Mephisto Shoes | 511 Boots | Justin Cowboy Boots | On Cloud Ireland | Osiris Shoes | Rad Shoes | Montana Boots | Marc Jacobs France |