Predicting MLB Free-Agent Signings and Trades That Will Crash and Burn
Spring is always a time for Major League Baseball fans to be optimistic, and perhaps especially so this year. Despite the 99-day lockout, it was a wild offseason on the free-agent and trade markets.
All the same, we’re here to say “humbug” about deals that just plain make us nervous.
Specifically, there are three trades and four free-agent signings that we think have the potential to crash and burn in 2022—and beyond in some cases. Not so much because of the cost that teams paid to acquire players, but because the players have Boston Red Sox Jersey red flags that could come back to bite said teams.
Starting with the trades, let’s get to it.
Seattle Mariners Acquire Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press
The Deal: LF Jesse Winker and 3B Eugenio Suarez; Cincinnati Reds get OF Jake Fraley, RHP Justin Dunn, LHP Brandon Williamson and PTBNL
As for what’s wrong with this deal, it’s never ideal when the most expensive player in a trade is also the least likely to contribute anything.
Eugenio Suarez came to Seattle with three years and $35 million left on his contract, the entirety of which is now the responsibility of the Mariners. It’s not a huge commitment in a vacuum, but in this case it’s attached to a player who’s accounted for minus-0.1 rWAR over the last two seasons.
By hitting 46 home runs, Eugenio Suarez has at least retained some of the power that he showed off while hitting 49 homers for the Reds in 2019. But he’s hit under the Mendoza line in the process, notably with diminishing returns against fastballs. And this was even with the benefit of a hitter-friendly home park.
It’s therefore up to Winker to make this trade worth it for Houston Texans Jerseys the Mariners. And in spite of his excellent 140 OPS+ over the last two seasons, his own question marks include a platoon split, bad defense and a history of significant injuries.
Granted, the Mariners didn’t pay an exorbitant acquisition cost to get Winker and Suarez. That will be little comfort, though, if their already glaring problems derail their chance at stardom in Seattle.
The Deal: Boston Red Sox get OF Jackie Bradley Jr., SS David Hamilton and 3B Alex Binelas; Milwaukee Brewers get RF Hunter Renfroe
The Red Sox raised plenty of eyebrows when they traded Renfroe for Bradley before the lockout, but the deal isn’t entirely devoid of theoretical justifications.
The Gold Glove-winning Bradley should boost a defense that was the worst in baseball by outs above average in 2021. The Red Sox also got two legitimate prospects back, as FanGraphs ranks Hamilton and Binelas as the team’s No. 15 and No. 17 talents, respectively.
Trouble is, Bradley will only be a viable everyday option in right field if he produces at the plate. This is not a given. He’s almost certainly not going to do worse than last year’s 34 OPS+, but he perhaps won’t do much better. Even before his results finally cratered in 2021, his expected results had already been trending down.
Though Renfroe is a flawed hitter in his own right, he’s been a consistent power source in four of the last five seasons. That includes last year, in which his 31 blasts made him Boston’s second-leading home run hitter.
It was more so because of his arm than his glove, but Renfroe was also competent enough in the field last year to end up as a Gold Glove finalist. Especially considering that the Red Sox took on more money to acquire Bradley, it’s easy to see them regretting not simply keeping Renfroe and signing Trevor Story anyway.
The Deal: 1 year, $25 million
On account of how he’s literally Justin Verlander—as in, the same guy with an MVP and two Cy Young Awards—it ought to be easy to be high on the Houston Astros’ deal with Justin Verlander.
It has, however, been a couple years since Verlander was last himself.
Following his unreal season in 2019, Verlander made just one start in July 2020 before his arm quit on him and he had to have Tommy John surgery. He was 37 at the time, making him one of the oldest pitchers to ever undergo the procedure. He’s now 39, making him one of baseball’s oldest active pitchers, period.
Further, Verlander will no longer be working with pitching coach Brent Strom, who departed the Astros in November. It likewise can’t be ignored that the veteran is returning to a post-sticky-stuff environment. We can’t say with 100 percent certainty that this is relevant to him…but reports and data sure suggest it is.
Add all this together, and there’s than a non-zero chance that Verlander won’t pitch like a No. 1 starter in 2022. Considering that they don’t otherwise have another No. 1 to fall back on, that would be a major hurdle for the Astros to overcome. If Verlander struggles and his 2023 option vests by way of him reaching 130 innings, the team could be in for more of the same next year.